1	Jammu and Kashmir - Defusing the Flashpoint
2	Introduction Kashmiri Hindu’s Agony – Thru a Camera Lens Kashmir History: A Non-Truncated View Article 370: Cause and Effect Pakistan’s Meddling and Talibanization US Role in South Asia and Jammu & Kashmir A Comprehensive Peace Framework Conclusion Q & A
3	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Thru a Camera Lens “Sharnarthi Apne Desh Mein” – A Film by Ashok Pandit, an ethnically cleansed refugee The Film highlights the circumstances under which Kashmiri Hindus had to leave their homes and hearths the atrocities inflicted upon Kashmiri Hindus how Kashmiri Hindus are living as ‘Invisible Refugees’ in their OWN Country the role of Pakistan and Islamic Terrorists in ‘Ethnic Cleansing’ in Kashmir
4	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – The Invisible Refugees
5	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Our temporary homeland
6	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Waiting for final call…
7	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Childhood lost in camps…
8	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Unsung Innocent Heroes…
9	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Day-to-Day Survival…
10	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Cost of being a Proud Indian..
11	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Is Anyone Secure?
12	Kashmir Hindu’s Agony – Who cares about Human Lives?
13	Kashmir History – A Non-Truncated View
14	Jammu & Kashmir – Physical Contours
15	Kashmir and Hinduism – Integral Part of Indian History 7,000 year-old common bonds Kashmir has been integral part of Major Indian Dynasties Deep-rooted Connections to Vedas, Mahabharata and Mauryan rulers and much more Mahabharata’s hero Arjun’s descendants settled in the region
16	Kashmir and Hinduism – Integral Part of Indian History Center of Hindu Religion and Education Hindu influence eroded only by Muslim oppression since 12th century A.D. Killings, Pogroms, Forced Conversions brought Kashmir’s Hindu population down to 11 families in 200 years after first Muslim invasion
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18	Article 370 - Cause and Effect
19	Article 370 - Cause and Effect Made Jammu & Kashmir a Country within a Country Created separate set of laws for State’s residents Made Indian Laws of Fundamental Rights, Citizenship, Property Ownership irrelevant in the State
20	Article 370 - Cause and Effect Allowed gerrymandering of electoral districts by Muslim-led National Conference Facilitated Steady Exclusion of Hindus from Political, Economic and Educational spheres in Jammu & Kashmir Perpetuated “State Subject” law, further diminishing Kashmiri Hindu population (800,000+ in 1947 -> 400,000 in 1989)
21	Article 370 - Cause and Effect Facilitates Hegemony and Resource-skimming by Kashmiri Muslims over Jammu and Ladakh regions Prevents Economic and Political integration of state with rest of India Contributes to Rampant, Overt Bureaucratic corruption to levels far above those in rest of India Benefits mainly elite Kashmiri Muslim families
22	Article 370 - Conclusion Article 370 directly paved the way for Economic Malaise, Communalism and Separatist Sentiment Indian “Secularism” prevents abrogation Made the State ripe for Pakistan’s meddling
23	Pakistan’s Meddling & Talibanization
24	Pakistan’s Meddling Goals: Ethnic re-engineering: Hindu exodus continues today Disruption of Democratic Process Compromising of State Administration apparatus Accession to Pakistan or Creation of a satellite, pseudo-independent state Who benefits: Pak military commanders, Jehadi leaders ISI
25	Pakistan’s Meddling Zia-ul-Haq’s government started exporting Islamic fervor, fundamentalism back in the 80s Mirrored earlier moves in 1965 by Ayub Khan This time had the experience and logistics developed in Afghan civil war
26	Pakistan’s Meddling In 1990, Pakistan rumored to have nuclear weapons deterrent against a repeat of 1965 Nuclear threat used at strategic occasions Terrorist groups continually formed, renamed and regrouped by ISI (continues even today)
27	Pakistan’s Meddling ISI supports the largest terrorist network in the world Provides infrastructure, military support and logistics to Kashmir terrorists, Taliban and Al Qaida
28	Pakistan’s Meddling 1996-1997 Elections: Normalcy returns ISI regrouped terror outfits after 1997: LeT, HuM, and later JeM gained influence over HM Violence accelerates again Economic effects: Most disastrous for Pakistan Vicious Cycle Funnels millions of Pakistani youth through fundamentalist madrassas & jehadi camps. Attracts fanatic Muslims from around the world
29	Pakistan’s Meddling - Conclusion Reached a boiling point on September 11 Sheikh Omar (Daniel Pearl kidnapping suspect), at behest of ISI chief, believed to wire funds to Sept. 11 hijacker Mohd. Atta ISI links to Al Qaida, Taliban stand exposed
30	US Role in South Asia & Jammu & Kashmir
31	US Role in South Asia and J&K Has tried to compartmentalize terror Ignored ISI support of Al Qaida until Sept. 11 Allowed ISI support to J&K terrorists to continue until December 13 Forced some verbal concessions from Musharraf (Jan. 12 speech), but ground situation stays the same in J&K
32	US Role in South Asia and J&K Can not think out of the box - Dependence on Musharraf reminiscent of earlier liaisons with Shah of Iran, even Saddam Hussein Pumping billions into Pakistan without adequate controls Ignores the facts that Taliban, Al Qaida leaders hiding in Pakistan with ISI support JeM, LeT etc. reported to be active as ever, pose threats to India as well as the US
33	A Comprehensive Peace Framework
34	The Dispute and The “Solutions” What is the dispute? Pakistan’s contesting of J&K accession to India purely based on religion Kashmiriyat is euphemism for covert Muslim hegemony Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists of J&K unanimous in rejecting any separation from India
35	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – I. Pakistan Accession Track record of Pakistan in Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK) Kashmiri Speakers negligible Complete Ethnic Cleansing of POK No Democracy - Direct rule by Pakistan Economically far behind rest of Pakistan No qualms in using POK for terrorist activities and Al Qaida support
36	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – I. Pakistan Accession Pakistan itself an Economic basket case Future of J&K minorities endangered Most certainly used as base for further jehadi incursions into India - stated goals of JeM, LeT and others Most significant victory for fundamentalist, jehadi elements, likely to cause “domino effect”
37	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – II. Independence Becomes a de facto satellite state of Pakistan a la Taliban-controlled Afghanistan Similar outcome as in case of accession to Pakistan - minority existence endangered Will also start a heated contest between other powers - US, China etc. for establishing strongholds in such an entity. External meddling in South Asia very likely
38	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – III. Joint Suzerainty Most impractical solution Only example in history - island of Vanuatu (joint control of Britain and France called the Condominium) ended in failure - jokingly referred to as the Pandemonium Little in common between Muslim Pakistan and Secular India to support common mode of administration
39	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – III. Joint Suzerainty Jehadi elements will have much easier path into J&K Likely that Indian influence will erode completely
40	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – IV. LOC-Based – Greater Autonomy Article 370 Perpetuated and Strengthened 50-year old malaise will not go away - the root causes remain and worsen Erosion of Indian influence, efflux of minorities continues Muslim hegemony will become paramount Only postpones the inevitable
41	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Abrogate Article 370 Split state into four entities: Panun Kashmir Kashmir Ladakh Jammu Precedent in recent breakup of large states with diverse administrative units - Uttaranchal, Jharkand, Chattisgarh
42	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Panun Kashmir Union Territory where Indian Laws would be applicable in Letter and Spirit Kashmiri Hindus can return to their homeland in safety and honor Any Indian (Hindu, Muslim, Sikh etc.) can enter, live, buy property and run businesses Will attract Hi-tech, other advanced industries for rapid economic growth
43	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Panun Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh will be expected to re-integrate at a faster rate with India economically and politically than Kashmir Anti-India Muslims may be allowed to migrate to Pakistan if disagree - (precedent - Krajina Serb migration in Croatia)
44	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Programs for preservation of culture in all 4 regions will be undertaken Jammu and Ladakh residents will escape Kashmiri Muslim hegemony
45	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Proposed reorganization of J&K State
46	The Dispute and The “Solutions” – V. Quadrification – KNN Proposals Detailed map of proposed Panun Kashmir territory
47	But will it work? Likely Pakistan meddling to continue Pakistan’s insecure personality due to combination of Economic Decay, Jehadi mindset, Disproportionate military, Punjabi hegemony and confounding of Pashtun extremism A broader solution for the subcontinent needed
48	A Framework for South Asia Pakistan is a dead-end nation Surviving only on dole from US, IMF Too many centrifugal forces - Sindhis, Balochis, Pashtuns Most abhor Punjabi hegemony Pashtunistan area (along with corresponding Afghan areas) has exported extremist influence to other provinces
49	A Framework for South Asia ISI, Pakistani Military, Jehadis continue to be threat to subcontinent and beyond Most regions blame Pakistani Punjab for hegemonic monopolization of resources Afghanistan is a similar quagmire Baluchis and Pashtuns have more in common with Pakistani counterparts than with Uzbeks and Tajiks in Northern Areas
50	A Framework for South Asia Adopt novel solution analogous to breakup of Yugoslavia into ethnically cohesive units Basis: Separate Pashtunistan (center for much of extremism problem) and surround by several buffer states in all directions Break Pakistani military strength and end perpetuation of hegemony by Pakistani Punjab Free states like Sindh to develop independent economic and political tracks
51	A Framework for South Asia New Entities: Sindh Pakistani Punjab (to include POK minus Northern Areas) Baluchistan (spans Afghanistan and Pakistan) Pashtunistan (spans Afghanistan and Pakistan) Northern Afghanistan (north of Kabul)
52	A Framework for South Asia
53	Conclusion
54	Conclusion Historical ties between Kashmir and Hinduism longer and deeper than with Islam Kashmir unrest results from combination of Article 370 influence and Pakistan’s proxy war US role in South Asia less than helpful - driven by short-term, Cold war perceptions
55	Conclusion Accession to Pakistan, Independence/ Joint Suzerainty and even greater autonomy are unlikely to “solve” the Kashmir issue Quadrification has the best chance for rapid integration of J&K with India with economic and political renewal A broader framework for stabilizing the subcontinent includes reorganization of Pakistan and Afghanistan to break the Jehad-Military nexus and Pakistani Punjab hegemony
56	Web References: www.ikashmir.org www.kashmirherald.com www.kashmiri-pandit.org www.panunkashmir.org